...

The Known Unknowns

From what I’ve gleaned from the few conversations I’ve now had with the admissions staff at the few colleges and universities we’ve toured (a dozen or so at this point), they really have no idea what is about to happen to them. Everything they’ve come to expect — in fact count on — is about to get upended.

Sure, many know about the enrollment cliff that begins with the incoming 2026 class (those born in 2008). Of course, many had a plan. That plan included leaning more heavily into recruitment and enrollment of international students. Of course, that will likely not be a viable option going forward.

One we spoke with talked about reaching out to rural areas, but those kids and their families are going to be some of the hardest hit in the current back and forth of trade policies and destruction of federal agencies and services. Families desperate to hold on to their livelihoods will be unlikely to send their kids off for a liberal arts education to a school far away.

Then there’s the fact that Federal loan and grant services are currently up in the air and likely to be greatly curtailed if not all out eliminated so paying for college will be difficult for all but a few.

Add to that the war on higher ed, funding, international student visas, and anything that might have the faintest whiff of “DEI” and what I’m left with is a sense of impermanence. Many college and universities will not survive such all out assaults.

In fact, at this point it all sounds like these institutions are still stuck in a world and spouting a script that should just as well be part of some course called “101: History of Collegiate Admissions 1900-2024”.

Therefore, as we’ve gone on these college tours, looking at schools for our current high school junior, I’ve taken in every piece of data regarding acceptance rates, diversity, financial aid availability, touting their status as a “research institution”, study abroad programs, etc. with the firm understanding that none of it is correct. All of it has already changed or will change in the next few months – let alone the next year when Beatrix is, hopefully, getting accepted to the places she likes and is having to make choices about her future.

I’m unsure what to make of it all. I’m hoping that someone would just be honest with us about the whole thing. I’d love to walk into a info session and have the Associate Director of Admissions get up at the podium and say, “Everything I would normally tell you in the next hour is likely no longer applicable and we have no idea about our very future as an institution let alone anything about your young person’s.”

I feel like I’m being gaslit by the entire process.

I’m begging for someone brave enough to admit the truth of not knowing and bold enough to say it and to recognize the challenges that face my kid and so many others.

At least I’d feel some comfort in the unknowing. Less alone in the murky depths of now.

I’d love to hear your thoughts on this. Especially if you work at a college or university, Please feel free to reach out.

March Forth

Today is one of my wife’s favorite days on the calendar, She likes it because March 4th is also a command, a call to action; March forth!

Two of my favorite writers recently wrote about thinking seasonally and using March as a starting point for the real action of the year.

Mike Vardy writes,

The calendar year starts, and you make plans. You set goals. You even build routines that feel solid. But somehow, it still doesn’t feel like the year has fully started.

That’s because January is a test. February is a warm-up. March? That’s the real beginning.

Seth Godin chimes in with,

January feels like the start of the year, but there’s always a hangover from the holidays. In the northern Hemisphere, February is dark and dreary and we’re mostly hunkering down waiting for the short month to end.

But March? Around the world, March can be a chance to get down to the work we committed to do.

I read both of these following a great session of home repair project planning for the coming Spring with my wife. All of this within 24 hours of each other. It felt like the universe was trying to tell me something…

Carpe diem. Seize the day.

So, I’m going to use this month to continue to, um, march forth on the goals I’ve set for the year.

Cancellation: a complex mix of accountability, power, justice, anger and societal change

So, when you start a targeted move against an individual, when you stoke up social media outrage against them, questions need to be asked not just about your target, but about your own motivations. Accountability, in a community, counts both ways. And the biggest question is: is you wielding that power actually helping the people you claim to be helping? Because if it’s not, then you’re just wielding power for your own pleasure.

You’re a bully.

This is important. Very important.

Trust

Some general thoughts on the subject of trust.

Trust is, quite literally, the glue that holds society together. Without trust, every human interaction and relationship is impossible. Every societal framework is built on trust.

Money is built on trust. The trust that one can exchange a token of ascribed value for a good and then turn around and exchange it for some other good of equal value to the holder. Lose trust in any part of such a transaction and money becomes effectively worthless.

This is what we saw in the 2008 global financial crisis. Explained very simply, one very large financial institution lost trust in the value of the holdings of one or more other very large financial institutions and basically said, “I don’t trust the value of what you are using to guarantee your money” The moment that trust was lost, the entire financial system collapsed.

The Great Depression was caused by people losing trust in the stock market, banks, and other financial vehicles.

All war begins when one country/society loses trust in another. The Russians invaded Ukraine because they no longer trusted it would not join a perceived enemy. The Israelis do not trust the Palestinians and vice versa. The early United States 13 colonies lost trust in the government of England.

The rise and fall of the Roman Empire? Et tu Brute?

All of this is to point out that a loss of trust in society — trust in government, trust in institutions, trust in each other — is the cause of a break down and, if left uncorrected, end to that society. Period. There is no “but”. You can not have a society without it. Society rises and falls on the strength of it.

Consider where we are as a nation — a people — today and make of this fact what you will.

Seventeen Sweaters: “Monk” Sweater from Zara

My favorite sweater.

I’m a bit under the weather so I’m using some older existing photos for this one. You’ll just have to trust me that I’m wearing this sweater as I type this…

I call this my “monk” sweater. The reasons should be kind of obvious. It looks like something a monk in the middle ages would have worn. My wife got this for me for Christmas many years ago from Zara. Double breasted with a slouchy hood. This is another fairly warm one that works well as a light jacket by itself in autumn temperatures.

Seventeen Sweaters: Black & Brown Extra Fine Merino Sweater

A few Christmas’s ago my wife, knowing how much I loved and wore this sweater made it her mission to find similar sweaters in other styles and colors. She found three.

This one is a black v-neck model. She also got one that is the most interesting navy blue I’ve ever seen (sort of an indigo but not quite, sort of a purple but not quite, impossible to capture in pictures) and an extra fine cashmere model that may show up in a future post.

My word for 2025: Better

My word for 2024 was FINISH. It served me well. I wrote it at the top of the beginning of my goals list for every month and it kept me focused on making sure whatever was on that list could meet that word (i.e. that I would finish the things I started). It drove my days. I chose it because at the end of the previous year it felt like I had a lot of hanging threads. Things left undone.

I’ve chosen my word for the year 2025 and it is Better.

Not that the word is better or the idea for the word is better than my last one but it does feel very much like the next step and it’s a step up or at least forward.

Looking back on this past year, I feel like I did finish quite a bit. While I am feeling more accomplished because of that, I think I can do even… Wait for it… Better this coming year. There’s always room for improvement.

I also like the way “better” works as a word in so many different contexts. I can do a better job. I can feel better. I can be a better person. I can be better about some things. I better do others. There’s a fair amount I wish I were better at.

I had a good 2024. I’m going to make 2025 Better.

Seventeen Sweaters: RL Rugby Line Shawl Collar Sweater

I took a day off yesterday from the series because it was Christmas. Back at it again today with this sweater from Ralph Lauren’s old Rugby line. Pretty sure I bought this around the same time as the green pullover shawl featured previously. This has similar detailing with the leather elbow patches and woven buttons. I tend to wear this one a lot. Works well with a button down, repp tie, too.